- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for global GDP growth in 2026 to 3.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from its October estimate.
- Growth in 2025 is also expected to reach 3.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than previously forecast.
- The IMF believes the global economy is adapting better to US tariffs and benefiting from the wave of AI investment.
- The growth forecast for 2027 remains unchanged at 3.2%.
- Positive adjustments reflect the US reducing tariffs after reaching trade agreements; the US effective tariff rate is currently about 18.5%, down from 25% in the April 2025 forecast.
- The US growth forecast for 2026 has been raised to 2.4%, up 0.3 percentage points, thanks to strong investment in AI infrastructure such as data centers, AI chips, and power.
- The IMF slightly lowered the US growth forecast for 2027 to 2.0%.
- Tech investment is also boosting growth in Spain (2.3% in 2026) and maintaining the UK’s outlook at 1.3%.
- The IMF warns that AI could cause inflationary pressure if growth overheats.
- Conversely, if expectations for AI productivity and profits do not materialize, the market could face a sharp correction, affecting demand.
- AI is listed as both a downside risk and a growth opportunity.
- If AI is adopted quickly and effectively, global growth in 2026 could increase by an additional 0.3 percentage points.
- In the medium term, AI could contribute an additional 0.1–0.8 percentage points annually to global growth.
- China is forecast to grow by 4.5% in 2026, lower than the 5.0% in 2025 but 0.3 percentage points higher than previous estimates.
- The Eurozone is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2026 thanks to public spending in Germany and better results in Spain and Ireland.
- Global inflation is expected to fall from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, opening room for monetary easing.
📌 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that the global economy in 2026 will still grow stably at 3.3% despite trade risks, thanks to strong momentum from AI investment and business adaptability. AI acts as a growth catalyst; if adopted quickly and effectively, global growth in 2026 could increase by an additional 0.3 percentage points. In the medium term, AI could contribute an additional 0.1–0.8 percentage points annually to global growth. The trend of falling inflation creates a monetary policy foundation to support growth in the coming period.
