Author: lethuha

The CBO forecasts that US public debt will increase from the current 100% of GDP to 156% of GDP by 2055 under the baseline scenario. However, if productivity increases by an additional 0.5 percentage points per year (partly thanks to AI), public debt will only reach 113% of GDP, without the need for fiscal tightening. Apollo suggests that AI could “solve the US fiscal problem,” but history shows that the productivity impact of technological innovation is difficult to predict. The Brookings Institution notes that US productivity grew by ~3% per year (1995-2005) due to digitalization, but only by 1.5% per…